Big Day

[Kip]

Irma has breached Cat V and carries 175 sustained winds. That's pushing the western hemisphere theoretical possibilities for a storm.

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[Kip]

The latest flight into the eye clocked flight level winds at 195+.

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[kurtdesign1]

That's approaching "get the fuck out" territory. And by approaching, I mean that it surpassed it about 50mph ago...

[Kip]

Now Irma has broken through the 180mph sustained winds, making it the most powerful storm in National Hurricane Center history while still contained in the Atlantic basin....and not far from the overall record.

[Edit] Just noticed that the gusts (non-sustained) have been running 190 *knots*, which is knocking on 220mph. I've weathered a few and watched a lot of hurricanes, but the big ones always fill me with awe of their power.


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[kurtdesign1]

220mph is total devistation. There is not a building in the world that can sustain that. The sheer power...

[kurtdesign1]

If she turns south, even at all...

[Kip]

If she turns south, even at all...

That's the concern. The reason it's a concern is that the EURO model has it doing just that, and riding almost the entire Dominican north coast. This model is historically one of the most consistently accurate predictors. Even being on the "soft side" of a storm is dangerous when you're talking CatV....and the houses are built in flood zones from duct tape and twigs.

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[Kip]

Oof. I guess we're going to have a bit more wind than I'd expected. Still shouldn't be terrible with the mountains just north of us, but bothersome anyway. We've entered the 36 hour window for expected TS wind arrival, and could see some hurricane force as well. The forecast track took a very slight southward tick, but because of Irma's ever expanding footprint it'll come through pretty wide. Seriously, I don't think we're in much danger in Santiago but yall may not hear from me for a while after Thursday morning. Power may be out for an loooong time.


We've changed from Hurricane "Watch" to "Warning" since the 2pm update.





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[kurtdesign1]

So, I get that the mountains can royally fu<& up weather patterns but are you honestly not very concerned about 185mph sustained winds? You might not be flooded out but I'm more concerned about Wicked witch of the West territory. What's going to be flying around in that air?!

[Kip]

If it remains offshore, the 185mph winds won't make landfall here. That's the hope. Even though the footprint has grown significantly today, the strongest winds are still pretty compact around the 30 nm eye. The TS winds are far-flung and will probably reach clear across the country though. The Cibao Valley and its crops will take a beating. If it crosses sugarcane, it can be absolutely devastating for several years, the reasons for which I can explain in person on our next call (it's a lengthy explanation related to how sugar is cultivated and harvested). Tobacco isn't in the fields right now, thankfully...

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