What's the realistic expectation?

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Kip
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What's the realistic expectation?

Post by Kip » Tue May 31, 2016 4:45 pm

[PREFACE: I'm genuinely not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but thought this forum would be a safe place to air concerns.]

So, as time goes forth I am increasingly perturbed by the whole petition thing. This late in the game, there's little chance of getting the signatures to even generate a response to the petitions. There are roughly 10k and 19k signatures on the two petitions, 21 days into the 30 day period. To even get a response, 100k per petition would be required.

My question is: Even if this had been successful, what would the expected result be? A response? I can pretty much guess what that response would be. This petition process just doesn't seem effective at all, and probably adds to the fatigue from this whole ordeal. I don't think a petition or two even had hope of actually changing the course of events. After repeated attempts at the same, I don't have much confidence or faith in these petitions. I realize there are "things going on behind the scenes." At least that's what I've been told. The response from the three major entities fighting this (CAA, CRA, IPCPR) has been pretty vague and, from appearances, lackluster and/or inconsequential. I'm not discounting the effort; it just seems that as a whole the industry's attempt has not been fruitful these past 6 years.

Did the industry think all this time that this wouldn't happen? I'm still firmly of the opinion that the consumer base at large is uninformed. Even the energy generated the first few days of these petitions seems to have fizzled. Is defeatism ruling the day? Does the average Joe even know yet today? Does he care? Do we all think this is just another brick in a wall we can't breach? I see a lot of "we can't give up" cheerleading, but what's the realistic expectation? Is this just an other step toward the inevitable downfall of the industry we have enjoyed the past 15+ years post-90's boom? If so, where do we go from here?

What are you doing personally? Stocking up for the long haul? Hoping for foreign orders or grey-market purchases? Tapering off your enjoyment of cigars/smoking rate? Maintaining some level of hope that a breaking point will be reached before the whole thing runs off the tracks? I'm genuinely interested....
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Stewmuse
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Re: What's the realistic expectation?

Post by Stewmuse » Tue May 31, 2016 5:17 pm

I think the overriding factor is to what you allude... consumers being unaware and, in many cases, unconcerned. I know that I sent the info and links to all of my cigar buddies and none of them said they already knew about the situation. A few replied that they signed on. Thinking about it, though, why would a person who has only a couple/few cigars (or less) per month care? It's just not a regular part of their lives. They'll save a few bucks and probably get less grief from their significant others. And with the increasing legalization of weed, many might just switch to that over time.
I imagine you can already guess what my plans are, but I'm also aware that it could simply be a matter of time before loose leaf tobacco gets the same treatment. When I see those clouds forming, true stockpiling will be in the cards.
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f.sinagra
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Re: What's the realistic expectation?

Post by f.sinagra » Tue May 31, 2016 7:03 pm

If you haven't listened to the Loomis and Coop podcast on Stogie Geeks, where they grade the cigar community in three categories, you definitely should. I've commented to Loomis that all of the grades given should be changed to an "F", to which he jokingly agreed. At this stage in the game, it's very comical -- especially when there is nothing comical about the situation.


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Maybe it's like becoming one with the cigar. You lose yourself in it; everything fades away: your worries, your problems, your thoughts. They fade into the smoke, and the cigar and you are at peace. - Raul Julia

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IWinchester
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Re: What's the realistic expectation?

Post by IWinchester » Wed Jun 01, 2016 2:26 pm

I'm stockpiling. I'm also planning on weening my palate off NCs and make CCs more regular in my rotation. Instead of 90%-10%, I've realized I may have to swap them if I want my budget and consumption to stay relatively stable. Certain German retailers will soon be getting more orders from MT...

Also, my business plan for retail is almost certainly in the dumps now, unless I move to FL, which I don't see happening

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TomD
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Re: What's the realistic expectation?

Post by TomD » Wed Jun 01, 2016 4:57 pm

Its very discouraging how few are outraged. Most new releases will end, for no reason.

There is lots of talk about how some of the biggest cigar companies were in favor of this, to eliminate competition. If this is true we need to find out.

Seems strange Swisher would aquire DE on the verge of these rules coming down. FDA has already said flavors are in their crosshairs. How much of DEs annual revenue is flavored? Will flavored prior to the predicate date be exempt? If yes did Swisher already know this when the bought DE? There is no way anyone could estimate the value of DE without knowing how the regs will end up.

Im guessing there will be some LEs made for European markets that we could score by mail.

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jledou
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Re: What's the realistic expectation?

Post by jledou » Fri Jun 03, 2016 7:33 am

Thoughts ... The next two years will see a lot of stock going out the door that is no longer grandfathered. The question is will it be discounted to be blown off the shelves or will it actually be a "rare" item that will no longer be available and the prices will go up? 3 years from now there will still be a early 2000 picture of the cigar scene around I just see it becoming a higher priced market. probably going to be nothing to see a $10+ Padron XXXX series by 2020.
Looking past 2020 the things I fear more than the FDA is insurance making our hobby harder and harder as they see a way to squeeze profits out of a minority and lobby's like the American Heart Association and American Cancer Society that have made smoking in general their #1 campaign and ignore every other health issue such as obesity and the chemicals we are putting in our body from the crap food companies are engineering.
In the end, I will enjoy a cigar as long as I can, lets just say a have a few stockpiled away already :D

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Stewmuse
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Re: What's the realistic expectation?

Post by Stewmuse » Sat Jun 18, 2016 1:07 am

Courtesy of Ian. Cigar Chat had an interview with Glynne Loope of CRA yesterday that was verry informative of the current situation and what is being done by the CRA, CAA, and IPCPR (?). Give it a listen!
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Stewmuse
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Re: What's the realistic expectation?

Post by Stewmuse » Sat Jun 18, 2016 11:09 am

StewMuse
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