Post
by kurtdesign1 » Thu Dec 18, 2014 8:49 am
Boy, oh boy, oh boy. I have thoughts on this and they are mostly positive.
Am I happy about the change? You can bet your ass, I am. Do I expect anything to be different for you and I in 100 days when things take effect (affect?)? No, I do not. The majority of people out there are keeping this in perspective but I've seen some facebook posts that talk about "finally" being able to get their hands on a Cuban, or "when will cubans be for sale at the tobacconist?" These posts are uninformed and potentially just a spur of the moment quip. I don't think the majority of citizens believe this is "it" in regards to the embargo. I DO believe this can be the beginning of the end of the embargo. It can also be the beginning of its strengthening if the next congress and next president are suited and like minded to claim Obama's declarations were not only incorrect, but helpful to an enemy.
Much will depend on Kerry's analysis of Cuba's status as a terrorist state and whether Cuba does truly lower some of the restrictions they have on contact to the outside world. If Cuba shows ANY legitimate human rights improvements (yes, the internet is a human right derived from free speech) there is a chance that this gains some momentum and the embargo could end after the next congress (Jan 2017) are sworn in. There is little to no chance this will occur in 2015 since the Republicans have taken power of the house. There would have to be SWEEPING change in Cuba for the likes of Rubio and others who want the 29 (27?) electoral votes in Florida to change their public opinion on this. It's just too critical of a voting base to alienate the Southern Florida core of Anti-Castro citizens.
If Kerry does not rescind the edict that Cuba is a state that assists terrorism (there is an official phrase here that I'm missing) OR major humanitarian improvements are not witnessed, I am fairly certain that the next president will swiftly and completely go the other direction with his ruling on the matter. Think Bush's change in 2002, I believe. He lowered the visit limit, removed the legality of "financial assistance" to Cuban family members and made it even more difficult to travel to the nation for aide workers. We could go right back there, if not even further.
Cuba, and its citizens, have been made more of a pawn in the recent years than they ever has been in the past. Even in the election of 64 when it was the first chance for a new administration to address the "blockade" as it essentially was in its initial form, it was not as polarizing of a topic as it became later in the Castro regime's tenure (I understand LBJ held office. It's speaking to the fact that it was not a point of contention between candidates). We have to realize that the goal here is an improvement of life for the citizens of our southern island neighbor. This is the first real attempt at improving that which I can recall. I am not an expert on the topic but I don't believe there have been public declarations from the POTUS as strongly worded as those shared Wednesday in regard to the failure of U.S. policy on the matter. There is a real chance that THIS declaration is enough. There is a real chance that Cuba will give a little in response. And there is a real chance that this may be a day we remember for the rest of our lives. It's possible the U.S. just got a little less hypocritical in its foreign relations (think human rights & the torture report). When a major government does that, we're all in a better position.
